SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 53.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 22.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.88%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Porto |
22.25% ( -0.09) | 24.5% ( -0.01) | 53.26% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 50.3% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.79% ( -0.07) | 51.21% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.95% ( -0.06) | 73.05% ( 0.06) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.23% ( -0.12) | 37.77% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.46% ( -0.12) | 74.54% ( 0.12) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.82% ( 0.01) | 19.18% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.15% ( 0.01) | 50.85% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 7.05% ( -0) 2-1 @ 5.67% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.61% Total : 22.25% | 1-1 @ 11.64% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.93% Total : 24.49% | 0-1 @ 11.96% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 9.88% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 9.62% 0-3 @ 5.44% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5.29% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.19% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 3% Total : 53.26% |
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