The Asian Cup quarter-finals begin on Friday with a pair of sides appearing at this stage of the competition for the first time, as Tajikistan and Jordan square off at Ahmed bin Ali Stadium.
In the round of 16, the Crowns defeated the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on penalties (5-4), while a dramatic injury-time surge enabled the Jordanians to edge Iraq 3-2.
Match preview
Even with only 34% possession in their knockout fixture, it looked as though Tajikistan would cruise to a comfortable victory, before a late goal by the UAE pegged them back.
While the Asian Cup debutants should have put that game to bed in the second half, they held their nerve in the shootout, winning a tournament knockout fixture for the first time since the 2023 Merdeka Tournament (2-0 win over Malaysia last October).
Petar Segrt's men have suffered just one defeat in their last nine competitive fixtures, conceding a goal or fewer in each of those outings.
Two of the three goals which they have conceded at this tournament were in the second half, with Tajikistan conceding the opening goal on two occasions.
While they conceded late in their round of 16 fixture, the Crowns are still unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions when scoring the opening goal.
Tajikistan are unbeaten in their previous two meetings with Jordan, winning 1-0 in a February 2021 friendly, while conceding an equaliser to them in second-half stoppage time during a 2026 World Cup qualifying fixture last November (1-1 draw).
Late drama has been the story for Jordan at the 2023 Asian Cup so far, and it seemed to serve them well in the last 16 as they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.
On matchday two, Hussein Ammouta saw his side concede an own-goal equaliser to South Korea in a 2-2 draw, and on Monday, it was their turn to pull off a dramatic comeback scoring in the 95th and 97th minute to claim victory.
All three of their goals versus Iraq came in either first or second-half stoppage time, while their last four goals have occurred in either of those portions of a match.
Now, the Pickpockets can do something that they have not been able to do since September 2022, win consecutive international encounters.
Friday will be the third time they play a quarter-final fixture at the Asian Cup, narrowly losing 2-1 to Uzbekistan in 2011 and failing to hang onto an early advantage against Japan in 2004, suffering a 4-3 defeat on penalties after that match ended in a 1-1 draw.
Jordan have won three of their five all-time meetings against Tajikistan, conceding two combined goals in all of those fixtures.
Team News
Segrt only made one change to the Tajikistan starting 11 from matchday three to their last 16 clash, with Shahrom Samiev coming into the lineup in place of Rustam Soirov.
Mukhammadzhon Rakhimov collected his 50th cap for the national team this week, replacing Shervoni Mabatshoev, while Ehson Panjshanbe and Parvizdzhon Umarbayev are each one away from reaching that same milestone and Akhtam Nazarov has now made 80 appearances.
Vakhdat Khanonov put home his third goal with the national team in their previous encounter, though it was Rustam Yatimov who was the hero, stopping a Caio Canedo penalty, allowing Alisher Shukurov to put home the winning spot kick.
After being red-carded deep into stoppage time in their match versus Iraq, Jordan will be without Hamza Al-Dardour for this encounter.
In their round of 16 clash, Yazan Al-Arab reached 50 caps for the senior side, Rajaei Ayed is two away from that milestone and Mohammad Abu Zrayq made his 25th appearance in their previous encounter.
Yazan Al-Naimat got things going for Jordan versus Iraq, scoring in first-half stoppage time, with the other strikes coming courtesy of Al-Arab and Nizar Al-Rashdan.
Tajikistan possible starting lineup:
Yatimov; Safarov, Khanonov, Dzhuraboyev, Nazarov; Shukorov, Rakmimov, Umarbayev; Soiroz, Samiev, Khamrokulov
Jordan possible starting lineup:
Abu Layla; Nasib, Al-Arab, Al-Ajalin; Haddad, Al-Rashdan, Rateb, Al-Mardi; Al-Taamari, Al-Naimat, Al-Dardour
We say: Tajikistan 2-1 Jordan
Both sides have shown a tremendous amount of resilience recently, but we are leaning towards Tajikistan because they have performed better overall and have nothing to lose at this stage.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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