SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Boston River | 17 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | Penarol | 17 | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | Deportivo Maldonado | 18 | 4 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 18 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 17 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Boston River | 17 | 6 | 31 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.07%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 27.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 2-1 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Liverpool win it was 0-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Liverpool |
44.07% ( 0.5) | 28.57% ( -0.49) | 27.36% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.65% ( 1.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.81% ( 1.54) | 62.19% ( -1.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.13% ( 1.12) | 81.87% ( -1.12) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.88% ( 1.02) | 28.12% ( -1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.2% ( 1.27) | 63.8% ( -1.27) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.72% ( 0.86) | 39.27% ( -0.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.02% ( 0.8) | 75.98% ( -0.8) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Liverpool |
| 1-0 @ 14.01% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 8.89% ( -0)2-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.51% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.09)Other @ 1.65% Total : 44.07% | 1-1 @ 13.09% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 11.04% ( -0.65)2-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.18)Other @ 0.55% Total : 28.56% | 0-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.35) 1-2 @ 6.12% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.47% Total : 27.35% |
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