SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.34%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
20.19% ( -0.48) | 27.3% ( 0.04) | 52.51% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 40.33% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.05% ( -0.55) | 62.94% ( 0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.57% ( -0.4) | 82.42% ( 0.39) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.3% ( -0.86) | 46.69% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.74% ( -0.66) | 82.25% ( 0.66) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.66% ( -0.05) | 24.33% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.28% ( -0.06) | 58.72% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.4% Total : 20.19% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 11.36% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.42% Total : 27.29% | 0-1 @ 16.05% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 11.34% ( 0.2)1-2 @ 8.64% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 5.35% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 4.07% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.89% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.16% Total : 52.49% |
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