SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | River Plate | 27 | 6 | 42 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 27 | 3 | 42 |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 27 | 7 | 40 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 27 | 3 | 42 |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 27 | 7 | 40 |
| 9 | Danubio | 27 | 3 | 40 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.24% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
33.24% ( 0.47) | 28.21% ( 0.05) | 38.56% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 46.93% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.79% ( -0.09) | 59.21% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.37% ( -0.07) | 79.63% ( 0.08) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.82% ( 0.28) | 33.18% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.22% ( 0.3) | 69.78% ( -0.3) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.22% ( -0.35) | 29.78% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.15% ( -0.43) | 65.85% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 10.9% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 33.24% | 1-1 @ 13.2% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.41% ( -0)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.2% | 0-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 8% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.43% Total : 38.55% |
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