Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.46%) and 1-2 (7.4%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (12.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.