SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Boston River had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.42%) and 2-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Boston River win was 0-1 (12.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Boston River |
37.36% ( -0.03) | 30.32% ( 0.32) | 32.32% ( -0.3) |
| Both teams to score 41.1% ( -0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.77% ( -1.02) | 66.23% ( 1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.26% ( -0.7) | 84.74% ( 0.7) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.88% ( -0.56) | 34.12% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.19% ( -0.61) | 70.81% ( 0.61) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.39% ( -0.78) | 37.61% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.61% ( -0.77) | 74.39% ( 0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Boston River |
| 1-0 @ 13.79% ( 0.3) 2-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.66% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.36% Total : 37.35% | 1-1 @ 13.49% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.83% ( 0.47)2-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.44% Total : 30.31% | 0-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 6.6% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 2% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.73% Total : 32.31% |
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