SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | River Plate | 17 | 5 | 24 |
| 9 | Fenix | 17 | -2 | 24 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 17 | -2 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Penarol | 17 | 5 | 29 |
| 5 | Deportivo Maldonado | 17 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | Montevideo Wanderers | 17 | 6 | 25 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
41.21% ( 0.02) | 28.66% ( -0.15) | 30.13% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 44.77% ( 0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.54% ( 0.56) | 61.46% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.66% ( 0.41) | 81.34% ( -0.41) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.65% ( 0.29) | 29.34% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.68% ( 0.35) | 65.32% ( -0.35) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.36% ( 0.41) | 36.63% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.58% ( 0.41) | 73.42% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 13.18% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 8.08% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.52% Total : 41.21% | 1-1 @ 13.23% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.66% | 0-1 @ 10.79% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.87% Total : 30.12% |
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