SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 6 | 27 |
| 4 | Boston River | 15 | 4 | 27 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 30.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
41.89% ( 0.37) | 27.44% ( 0.43) | 30.67% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 48.38% ( -1.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.97% ( -1.84) | 57.03% ( 1.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.08% ( -1.5) | 77.92% ( 1.5) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.15% ( -0.65) | 26.85% ( 0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.84% ( -0.87) | 62.16% ( 0.87) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.14% ( -1.53) | 33.86% ( 1.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.48% ( -1.69) | 70.52% ( 1.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 11.95% ( 0.61) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 3.73% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 2.01% Total : 41.88% | 1-1 @ 12.94% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 9.09% ( 0.62)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.44% | 0-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.36% Total : 30.67% |
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