Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 39.66%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 31.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cerro Largo in this match.
