Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 38.75%. A draw had a probability of 30.9% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.91%) and 1-2 (7.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.87%), while for a La Luz win it was 1-0 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
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