SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.88%) and 1-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (12.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Danubio |
30.6% ( 0.61) | 30.41% ( -0.2) | 38.99% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 40.48% ( 0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.22% ( 0.7) | 66.78% ( -0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.88% ( 0.47) | 85.12% ( -0.47) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.77% ( 0.89) | 39.23% ( -0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.06% ( 0.82) | 75.94% ( -0.82) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.62% ( 0.12) | 33.38% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.99% ( 0.13) | 70.01% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 12.25% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.5% Total : 30.59% | 1-1 @ 13.44% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 13.09% ( -0.35)2-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.42% Total : 30.4% | 0-1 @ 14.36% ( -0.33) 0-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.16)1-2 @ 7.38% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.52% Total : 38.98% |
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