SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Penarol | 20 | 4 | 31 |
| 8 | Fenix | 20 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | River Plate | 20 | 6 | 28 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 21 | 4 | 33 |
| 5 | Montevideo Wanderers | 20 | 8 | 32 |
| 6 | Defensor Sporting | 20 | 1 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (10.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
31.41% ( 0.3) | 28.16% ( -0.13) | 40.42% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 46.6% ( 0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.59% ( 0.54) | 59.4% ( -0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.22% ( 0.42) | 79.78% ( -0.42) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.43% ( 0.51) | 34.56% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.71% ( 0.54) | 71.28% ( -0.54) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.21% ( 0.17) | 28.79% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.36% ( 0.2) | 64.64% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 10.57% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.99% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.99% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.23% Total : 31.41% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.95% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.16% | 0-1 @ 12.39% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 8.2% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 3.4% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1% ( -0)Other @ 1.66% Total : 40.42% |
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