SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 31 | 46 | 71 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 30 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | Boston River | 30 | 10 | 52 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 5 | 48 |
| 7 | Penarol | 29 | 8 | 46 |
| 8 | Danubio | 30 | 6 | 45 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 36.2%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 35.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.81%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-0 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Liverpool | Draw | Penarol |
35.98% ( -0.04) | 27.82% ( 0.15) | 36.2% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 48.34% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.43% ( -0.59) | 57.57% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.65% ( -0.47) | 78.35% ( 0.47) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.46% ( -0.32) | 30.54% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.24% ( -0.38) | 66.76% ( 0.38) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.6% ( -0.36) | 30.4% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.4% ( -0.43) | 66.6% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liverpool | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 11.01% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.08% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 35.98% | 1-1 @ 13.11% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.82% | 0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 7.81% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.29% Total : 36.2% |
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