SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.98%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.05%) and 1-2 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Fenix | Draw | Penarol |
18.15% ( -0.07) | 25.87% ( 0.31) | 55.98% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 40.96% ( -0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.48% ( -1.1) | 60.52% ( 1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.37% ( -0.84) | 80.63% ( 0.83) |
| Fenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.36% ( -0.73) | 47.64% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.03% ( -0.55) | 82.96% ( 0.55) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.21% ( -0.55) | 21.78% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.02% ( -0.85) | 54.98% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fenix | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 4.35% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.85% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.18% Total : 18.15% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.41)2-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.45% Total : 25.85% | 0-1 @ 15.81% ( 0.38) 0-2 @ 12.05% ( 0.1)1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 6.12% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 4.54% ( -0.14)0-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.97% |
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