SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 18.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.57%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
57.93% ( -0.06) | 23.98% ( 0.03) | 18.09% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 45.7% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.88% ( -0.08) | 54.11% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.46% ( -0.07) | 75.53% ( 0.07) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.51% ( -0.05) | 18.49% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.29% ( -0.09) | 49.71% ( 0.09) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.07% ( -0.02) | 43.93% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.94% ( -0.02) | 80.06% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Plaza Colonia |
| 1-0 @ 13.71% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 11.57% 2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 57.94% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.92% ( -0)Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.97% | 0-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.64% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.27% 2-3 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 1.67% Total : 18.09% |
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