SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 11.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.58%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 0-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
66.12% ( 0.11) | 21.93% ( -0.06) | 11.95% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 37.97% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.14% ( 0.11) | 56.86% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.21% ( 0.08) | 77.78% ( -0.08) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.42% ( 0.08) | 16.58% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.62% ( 0.13) | 46.38% ( -0.13) |
| Rampla Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.52% ( -0.02) | 54.48% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.43% ( -0.01) | 87.57% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 16.23% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 14.58% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0)3-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 66.11% | 1-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.03% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 2.69% ( -0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 21.93% | 0-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.8% Total : 11.95% |
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