Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.76%). The likeliest Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
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