SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.6%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Boca Juniors |
34.59% ( 0.98) | 28.84% ( -0.54) | 36.56% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 45.3% ( 1.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.7% ( 1.87) | 61.29% ( -1.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.78% ( 1.37) | 81.21% ( -1.38) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.66% ( 1.67) | 33.34% ( -1.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.04% ( 1.79) | 69.96% ( -1.79) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.95% ( 0.68) | 32.05% ( -0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.48% ( 0.77) | 68.52% ( -0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.22)3-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 1.53% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.5% Total : 34.59% | 1-1 @ 13.35% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.77)2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.83% | 0-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.64) 1-2 @ 7.6% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 6.92% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.8% Total : 36.56% |
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