SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.59%) and 1-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Nacional |
28.23% ( -0.36) | 27.92% ( 0) | 43.85% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 45.87% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.37% ( -0.17) | 59.63% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.04% ( -0.13) | 79.96% ( 0.13) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.87% ( -0.38) | 37.13% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.08% ( -0.38) | 73.91% ( 0.38) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.97% ( 0.11) | 27.03% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.61% ( 0.14) | 62.39% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.44% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.77% Total : 28.23% | 1-1 @ 13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.03% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.66% Total : 27.9% | 0-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 8.59% ( 0.11)1-2 @ 8.51% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.71% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.84% |
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