SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.23%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.68%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro Largo |
54.23% ( 0.55) | 26.57% ( -0.28) | 19.2% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 40.79% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.38% ( 0.6) | 61.61% ( -0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.55% ( 0.44) | 81.45% ( -0.44) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.01% ( 0.5) | 22.99% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.21% ( 0.72) | 56.78% ( -0.72) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.96% ( 0.04) | 47.04% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.48% ( 0.03) | 82.51% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 15.89% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 11.68% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.47% Total : 54.22% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 10.81% ( -0.24)2-2 @ 3.32% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.44% Total : 26.56% | 0-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 19.2% |
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