Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.97%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 27.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.22%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.