Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
