SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | Albion | 15 | -15 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 33.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerrito |
| 40.08% | 26.37% | 33.55% |
| Both teams to score 52.6% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.92% | 52.08% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.19% | 73.81% |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.46% | 25.54% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.6% | 60.4% |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.64% | 29.36% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.66% | 65.34% |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerrito |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% 2-1 @ 8.56% 2-0 @ 6.99% 3-1 @ 3.9% 3-0 @ 3.18% 3-2 @ 2.39% 4-1 @ 1.33% 4-0 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.43% Total : 40.08% | 1-1 @ 12.54% 0-0 @ 7.5% 2-2 @ 5.25% 3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.19% 1-2 @ 7.69% 0-2 @ 5.63% 1-3 @ 3.14% 0-3 @ 2.3% 2-3 @ 2.14% 1-4 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.49% Total : 33.55% |
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