SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Penarol | 15 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Fenix | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.67%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 24.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.75%) and 1-2 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.95%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Danubio | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
24.33% ( -0.06) | 30.99% ( -0.02) | 44.67% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 36.19% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 29.63% ( 0.02) | 70.37% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.53% ( 0.01) | 87.47% ( -0.02) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.16% ( -0.05) | 46.84% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.64% ( -0.03) | 82.36% ( 0.03) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.07% ( 0.06) | 31.93% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.62% ( 0.07) | 68.38% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Danubio | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 11.34% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.3% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.24% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 1.45% Total : 24.33% | 0-0 @ 14.95% ( -0.01) 1-1 @ 12.95% 2-2 @ 2.8% ( -0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 30.99% | 0-1 @ 17.07% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.75% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 7.39% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.71% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.07% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 44.67% |
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