SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Montevideo City Torque | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 15 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 | Cerrito | 15 | -13 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Rentistas had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Rentistas win was 1-0 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rentistas | Draw | Cerro Largo |
33.4% ( 0.01) | 27.2% ( -0.01) | 39.4% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.95% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.57% ( 0.05) | 55.43% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.37% ( 0.04) | 76.63% ( -0.04) |
| Rentistas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.87% ( 0.03) | 31.13% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.54% ( 0.04) | 67.46% ( -0.03) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.53% ( 0.03) | 27.47% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.04% ( 0.04) | 62.96% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rentistas | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 9.98% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.52% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.82% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.93% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.27% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.89% ( 0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 33.4% | 1-1 @ 12.89% 0-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.2% | 0-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.33% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.14% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.59% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.08% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.09% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 1.98% Total : 39.39% |
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