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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 62.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 16.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.13%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
16.29% ( 0.14) | 21.16% ( 0.48) | 62.55% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 50.62% ( -1.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.33% ( -1.81) | 45.67% ( 1.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.01% ( -1.75) | 67.99% ( 1.75) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.86% ( -0.92) | 41.14% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.32% ( -0.82) | 77.68% ( 0.82) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86% ( -0.76) | 14% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.47% ( -1.51) | 41.53% ( 1.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 1-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 4.47% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.81% Total : 16.29% | 1-1 @ 10.05% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.43)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.15% | 0-1 @ 11.32% ( 0.55) 0-2 @ 11.13% ( 0.25)1-2 @ 9.89% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 7.3% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.48% ( -0.2)0-4 @ 3.59% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 3.18% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.17)2-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.12)0-5 @ 1.41% ( -0.09)1-5 @ 1.25% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.71% Total : 62.54% |
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