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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 68%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 13.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 1-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-2 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
68% ( 0.32) | 18.25% ( -0.16) | 13.75% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 54.33% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.39% ( 0.43) | 37.61% ( -0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.16% ( 0.46) | 59.84% ( -0.46) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.88% ( 0.19) | 10.12% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.7% ( 0.45) | 33.3% ( -0.45) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.45% ( 0.06) | 39.55% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.76% ( 0.05) | 76.23% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 2-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.9% Total : 68% | 1-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.52% ( -0)0-0 @ 4% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.25% | 1-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.75% Total : 13.75% |
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