SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 72.55%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 11.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.64%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-2 (3.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
72.55% ( 0.05) | 16.37% ( -0.02) | 11.09% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.7% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.47% ( 0.05) | 35.53% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.42% ( 0.05) | 57.58% ( -0.05) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.48% ( 0.02) | 8.52% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.49% ( 0.05) | 29.51% ( -0.05) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.61% | 42.4% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.23% ( -0) | 78.78% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 2-0 @ 10.95% 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0)1-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.72% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.04% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.12% ( 0)5-2 @ 1% ( 0)6-1 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.81% Total : 72.55% | 1-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.61% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.37% | 1-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.15% 1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 1.29% Total : 11.09% |
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