SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 77.01%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 8.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.71%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 2-1 (2.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | The New Saints |
8.65% ( 0.11) | 14.34% ( 0.35) | 77.01% ( -0.46) |
| Both teams to score 50.51% ( -0.99) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.65% ( -1.45) | 33.35% ( 1.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.88% ( -1.68) | 55.12% ( 1.69) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.36% ( -0.83) | 45.64% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.56% ( -0.66) | 81.44% ( 0.66) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.92% ( -0.4) | 7.08% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.18% ( -1.09) | 25.82% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | The New Saints |
| 2-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.58% Total : 8.65% | 1-1 @ 6.71% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.92% Total : 14.34% | 0-2 @ 11.32% ( 0.37) 0-3 @ 10% ( 0.11)1-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.09)0-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.46)1-3 @ 7.84% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 6.62% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 5.19% ( -0.18)0-5 @ 3.51% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 2.75% ( -0.16)2-4 @ 2.04% ( -0.12)0-6 @ 1.55% ( -0.09)1-6 @ 1.21% ( -0.1)2-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.37% Total : 77% |
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