SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 56.51%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 20.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
20.81% ( 0.56) | 22.67% ( -0.05) | 56.51% ( -0.5) |
| Both teams to score 54.02% ( 1.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.72% ( 0.95) | 45.28% ( -0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.38% ( 0.91) | 67.62% ( -0.9) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.17% ( 1.1) | 35.82% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.4% ( 1.12) | 72.6% ( -1.12) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.18% ( 0.16) | 15.82% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.01% ( 0.3) | 44.99% ( -0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 1-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.86% Total : 20.81% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.24)2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.67% | 0-1 @ 10.45% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 9.89% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 9.64% ( -0.29)1-3 @ 6.08% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 5.92% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 2.8% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.06)1-5 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.41% Total : 56.51% |
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