SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 54.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.81%) and 0-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
22.3% ( 0.22) | 22.76% ( 0.04) | 54.94% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 55.88% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.16% ( 0.07) | 43.84% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.77% ( 0.07) | 66.23% ( -0.06) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.4% ( 0.24) | 33.59% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.76% ( 0.26) | 70.24% ( -0.26) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.15% ( -0.06) | 15.85% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.95% ( -0.12) | 45.05% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 2-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.12% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.26% Total : 22.3% | 1-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.75% | 1-2 @ 9.85% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 6.05% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 2.55% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.52% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.52% Total : 54.94% |
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