SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
48.56% ( 0.27) | 22.33% ( -0.06) | 29.11% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 64.53% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.43% ( 0.14) | 35.57% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.38% ( 0.16) | 57.62% ( -0.16) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.93% ( 0.15) | 15.07% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.42% ( 0.28) | 43.59% ( -0.28) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.98% ( -0.06) | 24.02% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.72% ( -0.08) | 58.29% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.09% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.76% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.25% Total : 48.56% | 1-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.37% Total : 22.33% | 1-2 @ 6.97% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.68% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 29.11% |
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