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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 53.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 22.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Haverfordwest County win it was 1-0 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
22.63% ( 2.42) | 24.14% ( 0.63) | 53.23% ( -3.06) |
| Both teams to score 51.88% ( 1.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.64% ( 0.19) | 49.35% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.59% ( 0.17) | 71.4% ( -0.18) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.64% ( 2.52) | 36.35% ( -2.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.85% ( 2.47) | 73.14% ( -2.48) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.51% ( -1.06) | 18.48% ( 1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.31% ( -1.82) | 49.68% ( 1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 1-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.4) 2-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.53)2-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.21)Other @ 1.81% Total : 22.63% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.29) 0-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.13% | 0-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 9.58% ( -0.76)1-3 @ 5.45% ( -0.24)0-3 @ 5.39% ( -0.64)2-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 2.3% ( -0.18)0-4 @ 2.28% ( -0.36)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.27% Total : 53.22% |
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