SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 56.79%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haverfordwest County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
56.79% ( 0.89) | 22.36% ( -0.36) | 20.85% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 55.14% ( 0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.17% ( 0.92) | 43.83% ( -0.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.78% ( 0.89) | 66.22% ( -0.89) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.77% ( 0.62) | 15.23% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.12% ( 1.15) | 43.89% ( -1.14) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.04% ( 0.01) | 34.96% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.3% ( 0.01) | 71.7% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.01% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.22% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.27% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.93% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.07)5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.64% Total : 56.78% | 1-1 @ 10.53% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 5.32% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 5.21% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.36% | 0-1 @ 5.6% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.99% Total : 20.86% |
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