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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 36.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Haverfordwest County win was 0-1 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
38.19% ( 0.58) | 25.61% ( -0.26) | 36.2% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 55.57% ( 0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.55% ( 1.14) | 48.45% ( -1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.42% ( 1.03) | 70.58% ( -1.03) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( 0.84) | 24.89% ( -0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.49% ( 1.16) | 59.51% ( -1.15) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.99% ( 0.35) | 26% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.97% ( 0.48) | 61.03% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
| 1-0 @ 9% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.91% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.78% Total : 38.19% | 1-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.6% | 0-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 3.67% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.35% Total : 36.2% |
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