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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 77.94%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 7.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.46%) and 1-0 (11.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (2.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
77.94% ( 0.48) | 14.75% ( -0.26) | 7.31% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 41.97% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.28% ( 0.4) | 40.72% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.9% ( 0.4) | 63.1% ( -0.41) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.44% ( 0.2) | 8.56% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.4% ( 0.5) | 29.6% ( -0.5) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.9% ( -0.3) | 54.1% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.66% ( -0.19) | 87.33% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 2-0 @ 13.99% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 11.38% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.04)6-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0)Other @ 3.59% Total : 77.93% | 1-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.49% Total : 14.75% | 0-1 @ 2.85% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.32% Total : 7.31% |
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