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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 44.6%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (8.27%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | The New Saints |
28.76% ( -0.08) | 26.64% ( 0.04) | 44.6% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 49.8% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.24% ( -0.18) | 54.76% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.93% ( -0.15) | 76.07% ( 0.14) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.9% ( -0.16) | 34.1% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.22% ( -0.17) | 70.78% ( 0.16) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.56% ( -0.06) | 24.43% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.13% ( -0.08) | 58.87% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | The New Saints |
| 1-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.29% Total : 28.76% | 1-1 @ 12.63% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.64% | 0-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.9% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.27% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.89% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.37% ( 0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 44.6% |
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