SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Bala Town | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest County | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFC | 4 | -5 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 18.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Newtown AFC win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Newtown AFC |
57.95% ( -0.45) | 23.1% ( 0.11) | 18.96% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 49.71% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.47% ( 0.06) | 49.53% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.44% ( 0.06) | 71.56% ( -0.05) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.18% ( -0.13) | 16.82% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.2% ( -0.24) | 46.8% ( 0.25) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.77% ( 0.44) | 40.23% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.13% ( 0.39) | 76.87% ( -0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.39% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.93% Total : 57.94% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.89% Total : 23.09% | 0-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.12% Total : 18.96% |
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