SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberystwyth Town win with a probability of 39.44%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
39.44% ( 0.03) | 24.38% ( -0.04) | 36.18% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.94% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.19% ( 0.2) | 42.81% ( -0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.79% ( 0.2) | 65.21% ( -0.2) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.26% ( 0.1) | 21.74% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.08% ( 0.16) | 54.92% ( -0.16) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.59% ( 0.1) | 23.41% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.6% ( 0.14) | 57.4% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.93% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.01% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 39.44% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.38% | 1-2 @ 8.19% 0-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.6% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 2.17% Total : 36.18% |
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