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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Cardiff MU |
33.45% ( -0.31) | 25.44% ( 0.05) | 41.11% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 55.67% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.88% ( -0.27) | 48.12% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.72% ( -0.25) | 70.28% ( 0.25) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.52% ( -0.32) | 27.48% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.03% ( -0.42) | 62.97% ( 0.42) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.76% ( 0.01) | 23.24% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.85% ( 0.02) | 57.15% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 1-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.94% Total : 33.45% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.43% | 0-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.09% Total : 41.11% |
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