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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 60.65%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 17.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Newtown AFC win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Newtown AFC |
60.65% ( 0.07) | 21.65% ( -0.01) | 17.7% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.98% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.66% ( -0.04) | 45.34% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.32% ( -0.04) | 67.68% ( 0.05) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.51% ( 0.01) | 14.49% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.52% ( 0.01) | 42.48% ( -0.01) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.79% ( -0.09) | 39.21% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.08% ( -0.09) | 75.92% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 1-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.39% 4-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.09% 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0)Other @ 2.65% Total : 60.64% | 1-1 @ 10.27% 0-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.65% | 0-1 @ 5.32% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.13% Total : 17.7% |
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