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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 56.96%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Newtown AFC win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Newtown AFC |
56.96% ( -1.39) | 23.54% ( 0.43) | 19.5% ( 0.95) |
| Both teams to score 49.28% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.42% ( -0.45) | 50.57% ( 0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.51% ( -0.4) | 72.49% ( 0.4) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.45% ( -0.66) | 17.55% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.92% ( -1.15) | 48.08% ( 1.15) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.77% ( 0.81) | 40.23% ( -0.81) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.13% ( 0.73) | 76.86% ( -0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 1-0 @ 12.28% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 10.69% ( -0.27)2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.3)3-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.62% Total : 56.95% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 4.43% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.86% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.17% Total : 19.5% |
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