Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 62.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 17.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Pen-y-Bont win it was 1-2 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.

Result
The New Saints	Draw	Pen-y-Bont
62.13% ( 0.72)	20.16% ( -0.11)	17.71% ( -0.61)

Both teams to score 57.09% (

-0.85)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.4% (

-0.54)

38.6% (

0.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.1% (

-0.57)

60.89% (

0.56)

The New Saints Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.07% (

0.04)

11.93% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.71% (

0.08)

37.29% (

-0.08)

Pen-y-Bont Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.82% (

-0.99)

35.18% (

0.99)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.07% (

-1.05)

71.93% (

1.05)

Score Analysis

The New Saints 62.13%

Pen-y-Bont 17.71%

Draw 20.16%

The New Saints	Draw	Pen-y-Bont
2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.27) 1-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.24) 3-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 3.73% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.05) Other @ 4.03% Total : 62.13%	1-1 @ 9.32% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.16%	1-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.67% Total : 17.71%