SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 74.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 8.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.13%) and 0-3 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.88%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal Women would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa Women | Draw | Arsenal Women |
8.91% ( 0.26) | 16.64% ( 0.33) | 74.44% ( -0.59) |
| Both teams to score 42.91% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.24% ( -0.62) | 43.76% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.85% ( -0.61) | 66.15% ( 0.61) |
| Aston Villa Women Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.77% ( 0.18) | 52.23% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.84% ( 0.12) | 86.16% ( -0.12) |
| Arsenal Women Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.84% ( -0.31) | 10.16% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.61% ( -0.71) | 33.39% ( 0.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa Women | Draw | Arsenal Women |
| 1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.79% Total : 8.91% | 1-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.53% Total : 16.64% | 0-2 @ 13.87% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 10.57% ( -0.14)1-2 @ 9.01% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 6.87% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 6.05% ( -0.16)1-4 @ 3.93% ( -0.08)0-5 @ 2.77% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.8% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 1.05% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.88% Total : 74.43% |
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