SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Iran | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | United Arab Emirates | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Palestine | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Hong Kong | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Qatar had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Qatar win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that United Arab Emirates would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | United Arab Emirates |
33.94% ( 0.19) | 26.47% ( -0.16) | 39.58% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.37% ( 0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.58% ( 0.7) | 52.42% ( -0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.9% ( 0.6) | 74.1% ( -0.6) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.73% ( 0.47) | 29.27% ( -0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.76% ( 0.57) | 65.23% ( -0.57) |
| United Arab Emirates Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.04% ( 0.31) | 25.96% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.02% ( 0.41) | 60.97% ( -0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | United Arab Emirates |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 7.73% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.17% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.51% Total : 33.94% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.47% | 0-1 @ 10.24% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 8.49% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.11% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 39.58% |
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