SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Brazil had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Brazil win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Brazil |
40.54% ( -0.68) | 28.36% ( 0.23) | 31.09% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 45.93% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.82% ( -0.69) | 60.18% ( 0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.62% ( -0.53) | 80.38% ( 0.53) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.9% ( -0.72) | 29.1% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.98% ( -0.89) | 65.02% ( 0.89) |
| Brazil Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.79% ( -0.03) | 35.21% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.03% ( -0.04) | 71.97% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Brazil |
| 1-0 @ 12.64% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.59% Total : 40.53% | 1-1 @ 13.2% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.35% | 0-1 @ 10.69% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.11% Total : 31.09% |
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