Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Karlsruher SC win with a probability of 46.09%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Karlsruher SC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.89%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Karlsruher SC would win this match.
