Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jahn Regensburg win with a probability of 48.83%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 26.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jahn Regensburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
