SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Brisbane Roar win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
66.12% ( -0.38) | 18.89% ( 0.23) | 15% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 55.39% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.15% ( -0.77) | 37.85% ( 0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.9% ( -0.83) | 60.1% ( 0.83) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.34% ( -0.31) | 10.66% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.48% ( -0.7) | 34.52% ( 0.7) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62% ( -0.29) | 38% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.24% ( -0.28) | 74.76% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.22)3-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.07)Other @ 4.57% Total : 66.11% | 1-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.17% Total : 18.89% | 1-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.92% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 2.04% Total : 15% |
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