Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 33.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
